Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solid Q1 GDP more than makes up for Q2 weakness The strong rise in GDP in Q1 has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecasts for this year. And while the Victoria lockdown will weigh on consumption growth in Q2, sentiment is holding up so we expect... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Industry to benefit from recovery in capital spending The slump in retail sales in April suggests that consumer spending may have fallen further during the third state of emergency. However, the medical situation is improving and the vaccination rollout... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lockdown extensions, industrial weakness Several states have extended lockdowns this week even as new virus cases continue to plunge. With local governments taking a cautious approach to reopening, the economic recovery is likely to be more... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revising up our Brazil growth forecast The latest data suggest that Brazil’s economy has been much more resilient to the latest virus waves than we had anticipated and, as a result, we’re revising up our GDP growth forecast for this year... 3rd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper We think the ECB will tweak its monetary policy statement next week by pledging to maintain favourable financing conditions but not renewing its pledge to keep PEPP purchases at the recent... 3rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will climb the global league table? Emerging markets as a whole will increase their share of global GDP over the coming decades, with the largest expansions likely to come in EMs with rapid population growth (sub-Saharan Africa), those... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) May’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag suggesting that economic recoveries in the Gulf are struggling to gather momentum for the time being. But, with vaccination programmes strengthening... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery gathering pace in May. Price pressures in the manufacturing sector are intensifying, but we still think that higher inflation will be... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus The fallout from the second wave India’s ferocious second wave of COVID infections is likely to have caused the economy to contract by about 5% over Q2 as a whole. The good news is that the outbreak is quickly subsiding and activity... 3rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) India’s PMI readings for May adds to evidence elsewhere that the damage from the second virus wave has not been as severe as when the pandemic first struck last year. But with restrictions likely to... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Prices to be falling by end-year Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this... 2nd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: easing of restrictions paves way for H2 recovery Saudi Arabia’s economy suffered a small downturn in Q1 and the recovery so far this quarter has been slow-going. But, with the vaccine roll out picking up pace and restrictions being relaxed, coupled... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
