Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa’s economy weathered a second virus wave relatively well, but with cases rising again and other headwinds hanging over the outlook, the recent strength of the recovery is unlikely to last. 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone GDP fell in Q1 and official data for April have been weak, but timelier data suggest that the recovery is now underway. We have pencilled in a 1% q/q rise in GDP in Q2, with risks to the... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The decline in German industrial production in April underlines that the German economy was performing well below normal at the start of the second quarter. But things should have improved since then... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages (Apr.) & GDP (Revised Q1 2021) While the marked acceleration in wage growth in April was largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will remain strong throughout this year as the labour market tightens and... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: nuclear deal, elections and the economy Negotiators appear to be closing in on an agreement to revive Iran’s nuclear deal which, if revitalised, would provide a substantial lift to Iran’s economy – it could plausibly expand by 8-10% per... 7th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Headline trade growth remained elevated last month. But trade volumes dropped back in levels terms and, while supply constraints are partly to blame, there are signs that demand may have peaked too. 7th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Springing back to life…again The economic outlook has brightened as the virus has subsided and governments have permitted people to return to the shops and restaurants as well as to travel a bit more freely. However... 4th June 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russian activity data for April were relatively strong and suggest that a sustained recovery is taking hold in Q2 thanks to an easing of virus restrictions on services sectors and continued rebound in... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Elevated residential investment may concern the Bank The latest data suggest residential investment, which rose to more than 10% of GDP in the first quarter, has already peaked. With the Bank of Canada meeting next week, the key issue for policymakers... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB likely to look through rising inflation May’s inflation data were a little stronger than we and the consensus had expected, and inflation looks set to keep rising in the second half of the year. At next week's ECB meeting, we think that... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank not marvelling at proposed Act changes While many of the changes in the new proposed Riksbank Act are benign, the Bank argues with some merit that the new legislation would make it more difficult for it to use its balance sheet during... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Households still amassing excess savings, 3rd wave fears We don’t think that consumers’ reluctance to pay for their purchases on plastic, or their still-elevated cash holdings, are signs that they will be less willing to spend in the future. Meanwhile, the... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales fell back again in April to below their pre-pandemic levels. But the re-opening of non-essential retail throughout much of the euro-zone in May means they will have improved... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
