India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) There is unlikely to be a clearer illustration of the distorting impact of base effects than the 134% y/y rise reported in Indian industrial production in April. Industrial output actually dropped in... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The surprise drop in Mexican industrial production in April may partly be payback for a strong March. And early indicators suggest that industrial activity picked up in May. Moreover, with services... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in Thailand The past week in Thailand has seen a number of encouraging developments, but it is too early to start raising our GDP growth forecasts. 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccines for all by November, ¥1000 minimum wage The revised Q1 GDP figures and April wage data released this week suggest the economy was a little more resilient than first appeared in the early part of this year. And the economy is looking... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Apr.) The jump in GDP in April was another sign that consumers are raring to spend as the economy reopens. And all the early indicators suggest that GDP growth was strong in May as well. As such, our... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The m/m falls in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April are likely to be followed by further weakness in May (when a three-week lockdown was in place). This supports our view that the... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th June) Korean export values dipped a little at the start of June after a record high in May, but external shipments remain well above their pre-crisis level and should continue to boost GDP growth. 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery. 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Falling inflation won’t stop Norges Bank rate hikes Rising global price pressures have pushed inflation up in Switzerland and Sweden this year, but their central banks look set to leave policy on hold. In contrast, inflation in Norway has been falling... 9th June 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Resilient remittances will aid the recovery Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: leading the CEE recovery in 2021 The strength of Romania’s economy in Q1 and the positive outlook for growth over the coming quarters means that we now expect GDP to expand by 6.8% this year (compared to 4.8% previously). 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
