Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remained weak at the start of Q4 Despite the tick-up in the EM manufacturing PMI in October, manufacturing activity appears to have remained soft and we think this will be the case over the rest of the year. The surveys suggest that... 4th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2024) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 15-month low in October suggests that the sector continued to struggle as hurricanes and the ongoing strike at Boeing disrupted manufacturing activity... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone investment growth to remain weak Euro-zone investment has been weak since the pandemic. And despite the recent downward revision to our ECB interest rate forecasts, we don’t think it will pick up substantially, given the sluggish... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct .24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is... 1st November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What does a declining population mean for Canada? The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on... 31st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug.) The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP... 31st October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 ’24, Flash Estimate) The 0.8% q/q rise in Saudi GDP in Q3 is likely to be followed by further steady increases, but growth will be driven increasingly by higher oil output while there are signs that the non-oil sector is... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
