China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External demand to support economy in Q2 India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Trade (May 2021) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) Despite the spectacular y/y growth rates in May, the rebound in exports is showing signs of slowing. Indeed, we doubt external demand will provide much of a tailwind to growth over the coming months... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB over-optimistic on growth? The ECB made significant upward revisions to its GDP forecasts last week, presumably encouraged by the recent experience of other economies. The Bank also seems to have come round to our view that the... 15th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and US stock market rotation We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue. 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.3% decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the April data and spending on food and drink services posted another solid... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: consumer spending recovery has further to run Russian household spending looks set to rebound strongly this year as “excess” savings are drawn down, credit continues to expand, government support boosts incomes, and the labour market recovers... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Four-week delay to Freedom Day not a big blow to the economy A four-week delay to the easing of the final domestic COVID-19 restrictions beyond 21st June is unlikely to prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-pandemic size by the autumn. And although... 14th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic tailwinds not enough for a retail revival Upbeat economic data suggest that consumers have been flocking back to the shops since the reopening of non-essential retail in April. But this is probably not enough to turn around the fortunes of a... 14th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) Manufacturing sales volumes slumped 3.3% m/m in April, as the disruption from the global semiconductor shortage intensified. While sales volumes should gradually rise again from May, it will be some... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The further rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector is continuing to recover. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector’s... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth outlook improving, but ECB too optimistic The euro-zone’s growth outlook is improving thanks to the acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the re-opening of the economy. However, we were surprised at the size of the upward revision to the... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
