Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone on the rebound Football fans will not need to be told that life is still not quite back to normal in Europe as the stadiums are less than half full and “Euro 2020” is taking place a full year late. But in many... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Inflation concerns build Inflation has risen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, prompting much more cautious words from central banks (mainly in Latin America and Emerging Europe), but we expect that EM... 18th June 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (May) Rather than suggest the economic recovery is already spluttering, the decline in retail sales in May is probably just a result of the reopening of indoor hospitality in mid-May prompting households to... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly State of emergency declarations to be lifted The lifting of almost all states of emergency on Sunday should translate into economic activity rebounding further next week and entering Q3 on a relatively strong footing. And with daily cases... 18th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2021) Headline inflation rose sharply in May due largely to a pickup in energy inflation. But while we expect headline inflation to rise further over the coming months, in contrast to many other large... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue... 17th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics China is about to flood EMs with vaccines By September, China could be in a position to export 340mn vaccines doses each month – more than most regions of the world have administered in total so far. China’s vaccines are less effective than... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hajj limited again, Iran election, Dubai property The Saudi government’s confirmation that the Hajj pilgrimage will be extremely limited this year will weigh on the Kingdom’s economic recovery. Elsewhere, the likely victory for hardliner Ebrahim... 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue... 17th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May demonstrates that the labour market is continuing its extraordinary rebound which supports our call for the RBA to move to a flexible asset purchase programme in July. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2021) The solid rise in activity in Q1 means that New Zealand easily avoided a second technical recession and we expect GDP to continue its rebound over the rest of 2021. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccine bounce not too far away Japan’s now fast-moving vaccine rollout is set to gather more speed. PM Suga’s one-million-a-day goal could be hit on a 7-day average basis as soon as tomorrow. 18-to-64-year-olds have from today been... 16th June 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t derail the euro-zone’s recovery The Delta variant does not appear to have taken hold in mainland Europe as yet, but the experience of the Alpha variety suggests that it could be dominant by the end of July. While this would be far... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel A further expansion of gas production is likely to boost Israel’s current account surplus by an additional 0.4% of GDP per annum by 2025. This will put upwards pressure on the real exchange rate, but... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
