Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth Achieving net zero emissions in Japan in three decades is a difficult but achievable task. And while the most carbon-intensive sectors may face significant headwinds, overall we agree with PM Suga... 29th June 2021 · 30 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery gathering pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery seems to have got back on track in Q2 and, as virus restrictions are eased further and oil production cuts are scaled back, a strong second half of the year lies in... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (May 2021) While the further rise in the unemployment rate last month suggests on-off restrictions are taking their toll on the labour market, employment should bounce back strongly soon. Meanwhile, consumer... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the risks to our positive view of E-Z peripheral bonds While the risk that political events cause an increase in euro-zone “peripheral spreads” has arguably diminished recently, a withdrawal of ECB support has become more of a concern. On balance though... 28th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: little hit from tighter restrictions, SARB to stay dovish The further tightening of virus containment measures in South Africa for at least the next two weeks is unlikely to inflict severe damage on the economy. But it reinforces our view that the Reserve... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks turning hawkish, virus waves easing Latin American central banks are becoming increasingly hawkish, not just in Mexico (after yesterday's surprise rate hike), but also in Brazil and Chile. Colombia may soon join this club. While the... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s cocoa boom, core inflation still low in S. Africa Optimism is growing about a potential bumper cocoa harvest in Ghana, which could boost exports by more than 1% of GDP and presents an upside risk to our above-consensus growth forecasts. Meanwhile... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Port congestion easing, border reopening timeline Disruption at China’s busiest container terminal has added to the strains on global trade in recent weeks. But the situation may now be turning a corner, with signs that port congestion is starting to... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Recovery in world trade continues, for now April’s data revealed that world trade flows have enjoyed virtually interrupted growth for 12 months now, with world trade remaining well above its pre-virus level. But between the quintupling of... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
