Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia- Retail Sales (Jun./Q2 2021) The decent rise in real retail sales last quarter is consistent with a further rise in consumption in Q2. But given the lockdowns in Q3, we expect consumption to decline before long. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Global headwinds likely to weigh further on the Aussie dollar We think that RBA’s relatively hawkish stance will not be enough to prevent further falls in the Aussie dollar. 3rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in June suggests that industry made a negative contribution to q/q GDP growth over Q2 as a whole. But with virus cases having fallen sharply, it looks... 3rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) July’s whole economy PMIs painted a mixed picture with recoveries in Qatar and the UAE’s non-oil sectors picking up pace, while those in Egypt and Saudi Arabia softening. Strong vaccine rollouts and... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global PMIs flattening off at high levels The main takeaway from today’s batch of manufacturing PMIs is that industrial output growth looks to have peaked. Output indices have generally stopped rising, and new orders indices have come off the... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect China’s bond market to diverge from those elsewhere We think China’s long-term government bond yields will continue to fall as the country’s economy slows further, even if yields rebound elsewhere. 2nd August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI tanked in July as activity was hit by violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. And while activity is likely to rebound this month, South Africa’s... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan? With the Delta variant lifting new infections to a record-high, calls for a “hard” lockdown are growing. If that happened, services activity would fall further but we doubt that the government would... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The sharp rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to evidence that the economy has been staging a strong recovery ever since the second virus wave receded. But with vaccine coverage still... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to sharp contractions in manufacturing in those places worst affected by the virus. With outbreaks likely to remain a key headwind for months to come, the rapid... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery to slow from here The slightly disappointing second-quarter GDP data released this week and another dovish press conference from Chair Jerome Powell strengthen our belief that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
