Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2024) The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures... 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
Europe Economics Update Tariff threat to German auto sector another headwind In light of the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on auto imports, we're resending this note from last November which looks at the impact of US auto tariffs on the euro-zone. The key point is that... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Unsecured lending: boom to bust? We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The costs of Spain’s floods and future climate events The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will Trump be good or bad for the economy? The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What happened to the fiscal stimulus? Today’s fiscal announcement was far smaller and less detailed than many had hoped for. The explanation, we think, is that China’s leadership sees less need for stimulus than most commentators (we’re... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
