US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2 2021) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP, alongside the brightening economic outlook, means we are raising our above-consensus 2021 growth forecast to 10% (from 9%). We also expect that... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Colombia: BanRep to hike despite Q2 GDP drop The sharper-than-expected 2.4% q/q fall in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 was largely due to protest-related disruption in May and masked a strong rebound in output at the end of the quarter. The economic... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: the next 30 years Korea has performed relatively well through the pandemic, and we expect the economy to emerge from the crisis with little lasting damage. However, the long-run outlook is less promising. Although... 17th August 2021 · 16 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in July suggests that the hit to real incomes from surging prices, along with growing concerns about the Delta coronavirus variant, is starting to take its toll. The... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The strong growth in the euro-zone GDP in Q2 is likely to be repeated in Q3 despite the spread of the Delta variant, and should bring the economy back towards its pre-virus size in the coming months... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2021) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the regional recovery gathered pace last quarter as economies reopened following virus waves in Q1. We expect the recovery to remain strong... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Zambia: on the rocky road to restore macro stability The victory of Hakainde Hichilema in last week’s Zambian elections will probably nudge the country in the direction of more prudent macroeconomic policies and reforms under an IMF deal. These may bear... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Some global market implications of China’s slowing growth We expect slowing economic growth in China to continue to be a headwind for commodity-linked currencies and stock markets over the next couple of years. 16th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Manufacturing sales started to rebound in June but, with the global semiconductor shortage set to ease only gradually, it is likely to be a slow recovery for manufacturing sales volumes. 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 15.4% annualised expansion in Israeli GDP in Q2 took the economy to more than 3% above its pre-pandemic level. While we expect growth to slow markedly in Q3 as the re-opening... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The drop in India’s headline wholesale price inflation in July came on the back of an easing in fuel and food inflation, both of which have further to run. And with headline CPI inflation having... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) There was a broad-based slowdown in all the key indicators last month. This partly reflects disruptions to consumer activity due to the recent virus flare-up and flooding in central China. But... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) The surprise rise in Thai Q2 GDP is unlikely to be repeated this quarter as cases surge and the vaccine rollout makes only slow progress. The tourism sector is still on its knees, meaning any recovery... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
