Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have reached a turning point Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update COVID-19 outbreaks diverge, booster shots rolled out The past month has seen a growing divergence in COVID-19 outbreaks across the region, with cases still very low in Central Europe but surging in Israel and Turkey. Either way, it appears that... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) The chunky fall in the composite activity PMI suggests that the economy struggled to gain fresh momentum in August despite the apparent easing of the “pingdemic” and the final relaxation of all... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs suggest that growth slowed only slightly despite persistent supply problems and activity approaching more normal levels. They also imply that price pressures are no longer intensifying... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Policy to stay loose despite first signs of MPC dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a hike in the reverse repo rate and a change in policy stance would be... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 2021) Today’s flash PMIs suggest that the worsening Delta outbreak may yet result in a fall in consumption this quarter. And with supply shortages intensifying, the manufacturing sector isn’t stepping into... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Is the US dollar overvalued? The recent gains in the US dollar have left it somewhat above its “fair” value on most metrics we track, but we doubt this will prevent it from rising over the next 6-12 months. 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still to decide on taper timeline The Fed now looks likely to begin tapering its asset purchases later this year, but the precise timing could depend on the extent of any economic drag from the continued rapid spread of the Delta... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau risks a fourth-wave election Even if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to trigger an election during the emerging fourth wave of the pandemic does not backfire, we doubt a majority win for the Liberals on September 20 th... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly More fiscal worries in Brazil, the regional re-opening Worries about a worsening of Brazil’s fiscal position in the run-up to next year’s general elections have continued to build, and we think there may now be a fiscal risk premium of about 50bp embedded... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Strong Q4 still on the cards With daily cases surging to unprecedented levels and states of emergency extended to mid-September this week, there may not seem to be much light at the end of the tunnel for Japan’s economy. However... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation concerns, economy off to a bad start in Q3 The latest batch of labour market data will have done little to ease the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) concerns that the coming rise in inflation could be sustained in 2022. But we are not... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The re-opening of non-essential stores drove a 4.2% m/m rise in retail sales in June. While the preliminary estimate for July suggests retail sales dropped back again, that was most likely because... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Shortages to remain a drag on global manufacturing There are growing signs that global demand for Asian consumer goods has peaked. Despite this, supply shortages look set to persist for some time amid growing evidence that surging virus cases across... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read