Japan Economics Update Consumer spending to fall across Q3 The latest high-frequency data point to the relentless surge in new coronavirus cases starting to weigh heavily on consumer activity this month. And with full-blown emergency declarations to be... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Investment to make sizeable contribution to growth Business surveys suggest that global supply problems are becoming a drag on euro-zone investment, but these problems should fade going into 2022. As long as the Delta variant doesn’t halt the economic... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Plateau in world trade and supply bottlenecks to persist The latest data show that world trade has flattened off at a high level. While timely indicators suggest that trade is unlikely to reaccelerate, it doesn’t look set to weaken much either. Consequently... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: bigger GDP doesn’t ease economic woes Revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data show that the economy is more than 10% larger than previously estimated. But this doesn’t alter the headwinds facing the economic recovery and, while the... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Em. Europe & Lat Am leading the recovery in Q3 Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m fall in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a plunge in the volatile commercial aircraft component. The underlying details suggest that growth in business equipment... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming The bipartisan infrastructure deal, which could be passed by end-September, would provide no meaningful boost to the economy over the next couple of years. The $3.5trn spending package that Democrats... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (August) The second successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, partly due to supply chain difficulties in the... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rebound in EM currencies will last We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies will be short-lived, and that most will fall further against the US dollar this year. 24th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected Data published today show that the weakness in German GDP in Q2 was due to the low level of household spending. Consumption should increase sharply in Q3. But with manufacturers struggling, the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fourth wave could delay recovery GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into... 24th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election result in the balance After a sharp rise in support for the SDP the election result looks set to be very close. Whatever the outcome, economic policy will not change very much, but fiscal policy may be slightly less... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta speed bump not the only drag Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth and inflation easing a touch The flash PMIs for August confirm that growth in developed economies is slowing from a strong pace. This normalisation was always to be expected after the rapid post-pandemic revival, but the renewed... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
