India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The sharp rises in India’s services and composite PMI readings in August support our view that the economy has staged a strong rebound in Q3. But downside risks remain significant as the threat of... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening New South Wales and Victoria look set to remain under heavy restrictions until the vaccinations thresholds can be met. But with cases and hospitalisations surging there is a risk that hospitals will... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of our GDP forecasts Much of the coverage of this week's Q2 GDP release highlighted the record y/y growth rate, but that was due to the slump last year rather than recent economic strength. We estimate that GDP dropped by... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily OPEC+, oil prices and two implications for financial markets Although yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to stick to its planned output increases didn’t cause a big reaction in global financial markets, we still expect the price of oil to decline over the next... 2nd September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response US International Trade (Jul.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $70.1bn in July, from a revised $73.2bn, suggests that the drag on GDP growth from net trade in recent quarters will be partly reversed in the third. We’ll be... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The trade surplus was lower than expected in July, although expectations probably shifted following the preliminary GDP estimate released earlier this week, which showed a surprise fall in GDP in July... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.3% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in July confirms that the sector continued its weak performance into the start of Q3, and surveys suggest that August will be weak too. That said... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s recovery to surprise on the upside Morocco’s strong vaccine rollout and a rebound in the agricultural sector will support a robust recovery over the coming quarters. Although a slow return of tourists and fiscal consolidation will act... 2nd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update A summer catch-up The data released over the northern hemisphere summer break have suggested that economic recoveries in most countries have started to lose some steam. At the same time, while inflation is generally... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russia’s activity data for July show that industrial production has come off the boil, but retail sales continued to expand strongly, and the strength of consumer demand will probably keep the central... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s drought adds to inflation and fiscal risks Brazil’s drought is getting worse and the impact on hydropower production and electricity tariffs will result in higher inflation than we’d previously thought. Fiscal risks could also intensify if the... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show supply shortages still limiting growth August’s global manufacturing PMIs brought more evidence of a slowdown in the sector. Growth was always going to fall back as activity approached more normal levels, but supply shortages are also... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic not in the rear-view mirror for some time The economic damage from the latest COVID-19 waves across Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be smaller compared to previous waves, but low vaccination rates mean that officials will have to keep... 1st September 2021 · 5 mins read
