Capital Daily Taking stock of the summer doldrums While the past two weeks have seen a rebound in most risky assets, the summer months overall have been characterised by a relatively defensive tone across most financial markets. In our view, three... 6th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of more extreme weather events Climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense, which will worsen as the planet warms further. This is most likely to cause short-term disruptions to economic... 6th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta and Ida add to headwinds With employment increasing by less than 250,000 last month and other incoming data disappointing, the recovery appears to be losing momentum even faster than our already-below consensus forecasts... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Post-payrolls jump in Treasury yields likely to continue While the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield following the surprisingly weak August non-farm payrolls report is somewhat counterintuitive, we still expect bond yields to rise further. 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP shrinks, opinion polls shift The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with support for the ruling Liberal Party falling further this week and projections now pointing... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery worries, hawks fly in Chile The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s new president off to a good start, SOEs in SA Zambia’s newly elected president has wasted no time to push to restore macroeconomic stability, and reassure investors. But recent concerns about hidden debts could pose a risk to the debt... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea spending boost, Malaysia rate meeting Korea’s proposed budget for 2022 indicates that fiscal policy will remain supportive next year. This should give the BoK added reassurance that the economy will be able to withstand further rate hikes... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly From not enough jobs to not enough workers It’s remarkable how quickly the fear keeping policymakers awake at night has shifted from there being too many people out of work to there not being enough people to fill all the vacant jobs... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug) The recovery in euro-zone retail sales ended in July as sales fell sharply compared to June. However this does not affect our view that consumption will grow strongly in Q3, not least because we think... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics HGV labour shortages won’t drive interest rates up next year Reports that shortages of heavy good vehicles (HGV) drivers have become more acute and have raised drivers’ pay will do little to ease fears that higher wage growth could persistently lift CPI... 3rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
