Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2021) The strength in activity in Q2 was partly driven by the travel bubble which burst in Q3 as New Zealand went into lockdown. While we expect domestic demand to recover toward the end of the year... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in industrial production in August lifted it back above its pre-pandemic peak, but was nevertheless weaker than we had expected and suggests that the industrial recovery is losing... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA to struggle to get back on economic feet after July hit South Africa’s hard activity data for July underscored the severe blow to the retail and manufacturing sectors from violent unrest and tighter virus restrictions. While much of the hit has probably... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus A victory for United Russia in the Duma elections this week will strengthen the government’s recent focus on state intervention in the economy. Social redistribution has become a key priority for the... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone average hourly labour costs in Q2 compared to a year earlier was mainly due to pandemic-related distortions to the data that will continue to muddy the picture for another... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) The hit to service activity from last month’s virus outbreak was even larger than we, and other forecasters, had anticipated. The rest of the economy held up better, although the headwinds facing the... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jul. 2021) The rise in machinery orders in July and optimistic projections for August and September support our view that business investment will rise strongly again across Q3. And private investment should... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Sky-high shipping costs pose upside risk to inflation Our inflation forecasts already incorporate some passthrough of pipeline pressures including higher shipping costs to consumer prices. But given that maritime shipping costs have never surged anywhere... 14th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) Manufacturing sales fell in July and the renewed closures of auto plants across the continent, and the recent falls in some commodity prices, mean they are unlikely to recover strongly any time soon. 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose barring LatAm Our financial conditions indices show that conditions remain loose by historic standards in most EMs. The key exception is Latin America, where conditions have tightened sharply this year due to... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July suggest that, after putting in a better-than-expected performance in Q2, the economy made a soft start to Q3. 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Mexico’s austere budget It’s been a rollercoaster week in Brazilian politics and financial markets and, while investors have breathed a small sigh of relief in the past day or so, we think that they will be put under further... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers in focus The speech by Governor Tiff Macklem this week suggests that, when the Bank of Canada next tapers its asset purchases, it may do so by less than is commonly assumed. 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Economic recovery enters a more challenging phase The economy is entering a more challenging phase of its recovery from the pandemic as it is having to deal with another rise in COVID-19 cases and both product and labour shortages. We think the... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
