Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount The recent surge in European gas and coal prices adds to the price pressures facing the region and will push headline inflation rates further above central banks' targets in the coming months... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weak activity news likely to stave off rate hike On the back of the surge in inflation in August and the blistering increases in wholesale gas and electricity prices, investors and some economists have shifted their expectations of the first rate... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices Given the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices to record highs, it looks likely that Ofgem will opt for another chunky hike to the price cap on households’ utility bills next April... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The fourth consecutive fall in retail sales in August isn’t as bad as it looks as some of it reflects households spending more on non-retail items as life returns closer to normal. But as non-retail... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ set to tighten in October, RBA in early-2023 The strong rise in New Zealand’s GDP in Q2 nearly returned output to its pre-virus path despite the headwinds from low net migration and the slump in foreign tourism. So while GDP plunged in Q3, we... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Telecoms lifeline, autos constraints, bank liquidity India's struggling telecoms firms were thrown a lifeline this week after parliament approved a four-year moratorium on dues owed to the government. One potential consequence is that telecoms firms are... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s financial markets, Evergrande, and global spill-overs Although we doubt the current slowdown in China’s economy will reignite 2015-style “hard-landing” fears that weigh heavily on risky assets generally, we are anticipating some negative spill-overs... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans The news that Lebanon finally formed a new government this week came as welcome relief amid the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crises. But there are still plenty of big hurdles to... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Even though the 0.7% rise in headline retail sales in August was much better than expected, the details were far less positive, with big downward revisions to previous months, while the rise in online... 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Will a post-pandemic surge in demand fuel inflation? Demand was always likely to rebound strongly as economies re-opened and confidence returned. Beyond this, though, there are reasons to think that we could now be in for a period of sustained strong... 16th September 2021 · 25 mins read
