China Economics Update LPR cuts appear imminent Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold for a 17th consecutive month today. But with the economy losing steam and concerns around the property sector growing, we think policy rate cuts... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Modest policy loosening to follow election There has been almost no change in the distribution of seats in Parliament following the election, but it seems likely that the minority Liberal government will press on with a modest loosening of... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Poland’s economy appeared to lose steam in August amid signs that global chip shortages started to weigh on industrial output and retail sales failed to reverse a dip in July. We still think that GDP... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public finances figures provided further evidence that the government’s financial position isn’t as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. But the rumours... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What does deglobalisation mean for Japan? There are good reasons to think that the natural stalling in globalisation underway won’t do much damage to Japanese manufacturers. And while an abrupt severing of supply chains between China on the... 21st September 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily A few more thoughts on Evergrande and its implications Further bad news out of China about troubled property developer Evergrande over the weekend has led to a continuation of last week’s risk-off shift across financial markets today. We think three... 20th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising gas prices will hit Spain hardest The upward pressure on euro-zone headline inflation from the surge in natural gas prices will not be felt evenly throughout the region, with Spain looking most vulnerable. Governments are stepping in... 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global recovery slowing down a gear There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while... 20th September 2021 · 12 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year. 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
