US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 61.1 in September, from 59.9, mostly reflects an artificial boost from lengthening supplier delivery times rather than any improvement in demand... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & Colombia hike but tightening cycles to differ Central banks in Mexico and Colombia raised their policy rates by 25bp yesterday and more rate hikes are in the pipeline in both economies. The pace of tightening will remain gradual in Mexico but... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy running on fumes There’s little doubt that the fuel crisis and the broadening product and labour shortages will slow the UK economy’s recovery. This comes at a time when the government is unwinding its fiscal policy... 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Despite the smaller-than-expected decline in GDP in July and the strong preliminary estimate for August, third-quarter GDP growth still looks to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada predicted, which... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly PacMan joins the race, baht set for further falls The next presidential election in the Philippines is not until May, but the contest is already generating plenty of headlines with former boxing world champion Manny Pacquiao (PacMan to his fans) this... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Power supply steady, heavy industry under pressure Early data suggest that recent electricity rationing may be the result of power companies being unable to keep up with the strength of demand, rather than a substantial pullback in electricity supply... 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI softened last month, pointing to a slowdown in the rebound from the hit to activity in July from tighter virus containment measures and violent unrest. Supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep) The set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for September suggest that industrial activity has so far been pretty resilient in the face of global supply-chain disruptions. That said... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs for September provide additional signs that supply constraints continued to weigh on output in Central Europe, although it seems that price pressures eased further. 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose in September, but that is likely to prove the high point as the rapid reopening rebound fades and local manufacturers start to feel the pinch from global supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supply shortages set to hold back manufacturers Production of motor vehicles and electronics fell sharply in August and is well below pre-pandemic levels. This isn’t mainly due to weaker demand, which has moderated but remains healthy. Instead, it... 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) While regional PMIs showed that the disruption from large virus waves in the region is easing somewhat, unmet orders continue to pile up, meaning that the resulting shortages further down supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3 2021) The latest Tankan survey was stronger than most had anticipated, supporting our view that the economy will recover rapidly as the Delta wave has ebbed. However, there are mounting signs that the... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Even if the US dollar falls back a bit further in the near term, we expect it to resume its recent rally in due course. 30th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Withdrawal of CRB a risk to consumption Due to the still high household saving rate, we have so far been sanguine about the risks posed by the winding down of benefit payments to households. But with goods shortages limiting the scope for... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil rallies, Bahrain VAT hike, Tunisia gets a new PM The price of oil hit its highest level in nearly three years this week and, combined with rising oil output, will help support an improvement in budget and current account positions in the Gulf. This... 30th September 2021 · 5 mins read
