Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The large improvement in the trade surplus in August was much better than the consensus estimate of a small deterioration, but we are wary about suggesting that there are upside risks to our third... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger than expected 0.7% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August suggests that the sector probably knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth in Q3. Persistent shortages of component... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A property tax could make up for fewer land sales Local governments in China are far less reliant on land sales as a source of revenue than is often claimed. While slowing real estate development will create a funding gap, it could be more than... 5th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Is the worst over? With cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam falling sharply and the government easing restrictions, factories are starting to reopen, and the latest data suggest the worst is now over for the country’s... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon private sectors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar gathered pace as domestic activity strengthened on the back of easing virus... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery losing some momentum as GDP approaches its pre-pandemic size and as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing. The... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The buoyant readings in India’s PMI surveys for September add weight to our view that economic output rose back to pre-virus levels in Q3. But the recovery will probably lose momentum over the coming... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households’ excess savings continue to build Households continued to accumulate “excess” savings in Q2 this year, with those held as cash and bank deposits equivalent to about 4% of GDP. We do not expect all of this to be spent, but some of it... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s hard activity data for August showed that industry has continued to struggle while loose fiscal policy has supported consumer spending. We think that consumer demand should hold up well at... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CMHC sounds the alarm (again) It’s hard to argue against the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest warning that house prices look vulnerable to a correction. Indeed, we expect prices to fall in several cities by... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM supply constraints mount Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends from Q3 that we expect to continue We think that three recent market trends – underwhelming stock market performance, rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar – are likely to continue. 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More signs of supply crimping industrial recovery The key message from today’s batch of PMIs for September is that supply constraints are still limiting growth in industry, and there is little to suggest they will ease materially any time soon. So... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt data disclosures, SA fiscal buffer evaporating Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency. At the very... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central... 1st October 2021 · 10 mins read
