Latin America Economics Update Brazil: signs of stagflation The multitude of supply shocks hitting Brazil’s economy are likely to keep inflation at 7-10% well into next year and cause the pace of recovery to slow to a crawl in the next few quarters. Overall... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages limiting growth and boosting inflation With shortages of goods and labour still dominating the news, and following our Focus research into global shortages, we have added a new page to the Global Economics Chart Book to monitor their... 14th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) Manufacturing sales volumes were a bit stronger than we expected in August, but the renewed cuts to production at auto production plants in September suggest that sales volumes fell again last month. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) South Africa’s hard activity data for August point to a bumpy recovery following a large hit to the economy in July, adding to reasons to think that interest rates are unlikely to be raised imminently... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug) The large decline in euro-zone industrial production in August was largely due to supply shortages affecting production, particularly in the German auto sector. While demand is still strong, prolonged... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in August confirms that the rapid gains in output, which in just 16 months lifted GDP from being 25.1% below its February 2020 pre-pandemic peak to 0.8% below, are now behind... 13th October 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Sep.) September exports beat even our above-consensus expectations. Coupled with separate data showing that electricity consumption held up well last month, this suggests that the hit from power rationing... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Structural slowdown in China a key threat to Australia Australia’s exports to China are even more vulnerable to a slowdown in the property sector than they were before the trade spat as iron ore has gained in importance. We think that China’s steel demand... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Aug. 2021) The fall in machinery orders in August supports our view that the recovery in business investment stalled a little across Q3. But private investment should rebound more strongly in Q4 and into next... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped further below the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s inflation target range in September, and we expect it to remain there for several more months. That’s one reason to... 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour shortages becoming worse and more widespread Labour shortages seem to be worse and more widespread than we had expected. Although the end of the furlough scheme in late September may ease some of the shortages, we doubt it will plug all the... 12th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in August suggests that the economy may have held up better than we had previously anticipated in Q3. But, under the surface... 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug.) Turkey’s industrial sector bounced back in August following a weak start to the quarter and, while retail sales growth slowed, it looks like the economy recorded another robust increase in GDP in Q3. 12th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Recovery enters a slower phase Following a rapid rebound from the second virus wave, India’s economy is beginning to lose some steam. And with vaccination coverage still low, downside risks remain significant. Under these... 11th October 2021 · 20 mins read
