Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2021) The rise in retail sales in September means that the trough in consumption is now behind us. We expect retail sales to rebound in Q4 as restrictions relax and a growing number of Australians are able... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Sep. 2021) While employment fell sharply again in September it should rise strongly across Q4 as economic activity gets back to near normal now that most restrictions have been lifted. Meanwhile, the sharp fall... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy The surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Eastern Europe has prompted the re-imposition of restrictions and it looks like measures will be stepped up, weighing on recoveries in Q4. Tight restrictions... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta drag easing, but shortages worsening We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a slightly stronger 300,000 in October, with the easing Delta wave of infections triggering some rebound in hiring, but worsening labour shortages are a... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter financial conditions to hold back recoveries Financial conditions in Latin America have tightened sharply this year, most notably in Brazil and Chile, on the back of aggressive monetary tightening and growing political and/or fiscal risks. With... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth slowed to only 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, as the Delta wave of infections, the waning fiscal stimulus and shortages, particularly of motor vehicles, triggered a marked slowdown... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October showed that sentiment in industry and services softened across most of Central and Eastern Europe at the start of Q4. With rising virus cases adding... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Supply problems to continue constraining world trade The evidence keeps mounting that world trade is unable to rise any further from its elevated level. And industrial supply and global logistics are likely to continue failing to keep up with demand in... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q3) & ETI (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected growth in Swedish GDP in Q3 shows that the recovery continued apace over the summer, lifting activity even further above its pre-pandemic level. But while business... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Sep. 2021) While retail sales rebounded in September as the Delta wave ebbed, supply shortages in the car industry may prevent a full recovery until year-end. 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
