UK Economics Update Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s to remain the Gulf’s star economy The UAE’s economy has been the strongest performer in the Gulf over the past year or so and a robust non-oil sector should help the UAE retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the region. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024) Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates. 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Hard landing risk rising, but not the base case Despite the weakness of the latest labour market data, we judge that a soft landing is still the most likely outcome for the economy. Nonetheless, the risk of a hard landing has increased, while the... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourism to keep supporting southern outperformance Tourism in the euro-zone is likely to continue growing at a decent pace over the coming quarters due to rising real wages and increased capacity. This will be a particular boon to the southern... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (July 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.4 isn’t much to get excited about given it remains weak, but the corresponding increase in the employment index should soothe concerns that the labour... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jul. 2024) July’s batch of PMIs were softer across the board, adding to signs that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf is weakening. Egypt’s PMI also dropped back but, under the hood, there... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 1722861000 Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears?
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2, 2024) The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity set to weaken in... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to disappoint the Bank The data this week suggested that second-quarter GDP growth was a touch stronger than expected at 2.1% annualised. We expect higher oil export capacity and strong immigration to prevent a sharp... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
