Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA local elections shrink political capital for austerity The ANC’s poor showing in South Africa’s local elections this week may strengthen the hand of factions within the party that want to push back against fiscal consolidation. This tilts the risks... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the latest surveys The latest survey data suggest that GDP growth held up relatively well in Brazil and picked up slightly in Mexico in Q4. In the meantime, Chile’s red-hot recovery is continuing which will keep the... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis The economic and political backdrop in Turkey is eerily similar to that which preceded the currency crisis in 2018, although one key difference now is that the lira doesn’t appear to be fundamentally... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed The rally in oil prices has opened the door for some of the larger Gulf economies to loosen fiscal policy, but governments in Bahrain and Oman will need to continue tightening to repair their dire... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Best of the recovery now in the rear-view mirror The raft of Q3 data that have been released so far have been the proverbial mixed bag with some countries (g. France) reporting surprisingly strong growth and others (e.g. the US) surprising on the... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf strengthened, particularly in the UAE as the Expo got underway this month. But price pressures are... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Virus caution by the elderly not a big downside risk Continued caution by the elderly is a downside risk to our upbeat forecasts for private consumption, but we’re already assuming that households won’t return to their old ways anytime soon. 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The strength in India’s PMI surveys for October suggests that economic activity continued to hold up well last month. But we still think that the recovery is set to enter a slower phase, and India’s... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Still no sign of supply problems letting up The October manufacturing PMIs gave us more of the same – evidence that supply disruptions are getting worse, industrial output growth is weakening, and price pressures are intensifying. This fits... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update COP26 unlikely to alter economic outlook The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, has the potential to be an important milestone but it is just one step along the path required to limit global warming. Accordingly, it will not on... 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth is stronger than it seems The “fixed-weight” average hourly earnings series that the Bank of Canada is following appear to be understating wage growth, but should provide a more accurate picture over the rest of the year. 2nd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back last month, pointing to a further slowdown in the sector’s already weak recovery. Persistent headwinds will probably keep manufacturing activity subdued. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Asian exporters continue to defy gravity? Asian exports have continued to grow rapidly despite the recent disruption stemming from lockdowns in South East Asia. A huge backlog of orders and low inventory levels in advanced economies mean that... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) While the headline ISM manufacturing index fell only slightly to 60.8 in October, from 61.1, the survey details add to the evidence that shortages are constraining activity and pushing up prices. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
