UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery hits a bump in the road Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery lost some steam in Q3 but, with virus restrictions easing further and oil production rising, GDP growth will strengthen over the rest of this year and next. 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) With revised data showing that the euro-zone economy performed even better than previously thought in Q2, the ECB is sure to revise up its GDP forecasts on Thursday. That said, even if it reduces the... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Implications of a weak monsoon This year’s monsoon has so far been weaker than usual. This won’t have as big an economic impact as it would have a couple of decades ago. But it will harm employment and energy production. Some... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) The small increase in German industrial production in July merely reversed the fall in June, and left output well below normal. While the rest of the economy is now close to a full recovery, supply... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) Exports and imports were much stronger than anticipated last month thanks to buoyant demand, even as the data point to some lingering supply shortages. We continue to think shipments will soften in... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the summer doldrums While the past two weeks have seen a rebound in most risky assets, the summer months overall have been characterised by a relatively defensive tone across most financial markets. In our view, three... 6th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of more extreme weather events Climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense, which will worsen as the planet warms further. This is most likely to cause short-term disruptions to economic... 6th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta and Ida add to headwinds With employment increasing by less than 250,000 last month and other incoming data disappointing, the recovery appears to be losing momentum even faster than our already-below consensus forecasts... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Post-payrolls jump in Treasury yields likely to continue While the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield following the surprisingly weak August non-farm payrolls report is somewhat counterintuitive, we still expect bond yields to rise further. 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP shrinks, opinion polls shift The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with support for the ruling Liberal Party falling further this week and projections now pointing... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery worries, hawks fly in Chile The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s new president off to a good start, SOEs in SA Zambia’s newly elected president has wasted no time to push to restore macroeconomic stability, and reassure investors. But recent concerns about hidden debts could pose a risk to the debt... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read