Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2021) The Q3 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally undershot expectations and suggest that economies entered Q4 with a clear loss of momentum. With supply disruptions set to persist and... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates quickly adding to Brazil’s fiscal challenge By next year, Brazil’s public sector interest payments could be almost twice as large (at ~8% of GDP) as they were in 2020, making the challenge of stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio all the... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The renewed closures of auto plants weighed heavily on manufacturing sales in September. While many factories re-opened again this month, there is still a chance that overall manufacturing sales... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial growth rebounded last month as energy shortages eased. But this pick-up is likely to be short-lived given the deepening downturn in property construction. And while retail sales also... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thai GDP shrank in the third quarter after the government tightened restrictions and, while the economy should bounce back strongly in the fourth quarter, the speed of the recovery beyond the end of... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q3 2021 Preliminary) While the economy contracted yet again in Q3 as supply shortages and the Delta wave softened domestic demand, output should now be rebounding sharply. With most domestic restrictions removed, we... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How far can the dollar rise? After its most recent surge on the back of last week’s strong payrolls report, this week’s exceptionally high inflation reading, and hawkish comments from some FOMC members, the DXY index has now... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rampant; Infrastructure week is finally here Headline CPI inflation hit 6.2% last month with core CPI inflation climbing to 4.6%. Energy prices look set to drop back a little over the next couple of months, but core inflation will breach 5%, as... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to continue to underperform as growth headwinds mount The GDP data released this week indicated that in Q3 households were still having a better time than businesses. But consumer spending growth will probably start to weaken before too long as higher... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymakers are stressing developers not markets This week’s sell-off in Chinese high-yield dollar bonds is not a good measure of the stress facing Chinese developers. These bonds account for less than a tenth of developer debt. Their key creditors... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Upside risks to October inflation lower than in the US The upside surprise to consumer price inflation in the US in October suggests there are also further upside risks in Canada, although the data next week are unlikely to show as large an increase in... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia disruption eases, Sri Lanka in peril Recent data from Malaysia and Vietnam suggest that virus-related disruption is continuing to ease. This should help alleviate some of the supply constraints currently holding back growth elsewhere in... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The second successive monthly decline in industrial production, in September, means that production was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2. As supply-chain difficulties are likely to persist for some time... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
