Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey and EM contagion risks The latest crisis engulfing Turkey is likely to make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch An opportunity to dial down the dovishness a touch The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its policy settings on hold next week. But against a backdrop of above-target inflation and the broader hawkish shift by policymakers elsewhere, we expect it... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3 2021) The 4.9% q/q surge in Chile’s GDP in Q3 took output not only above its pre-pandemic level but also its pre-crisis trend. The strength of the figures means that we now expect above-consensus growth of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) The drop in Nigeria’s GDP growth to 4.0% y/y in Q3 points to the recovery in activity outside the key oil sector petering out. We think this will continue over the coming quarters, weighing on... 18th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2021) The softer-than-expected 4.3% y/y expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery lost momentum during the summer and, with the severe virus outbreak likely to take its toll on domestic... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to output continuing to rebound in the sectors hardest hit by violent unrest in July. But the economy probably still contracted over Q3 as a whole... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Rising virus numbers have caused containment measures to be reimposed in Emerging Europe and now seem to be harming consumer activity in the euro-zone. There is a strong risk of further restrictions... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2021) The stronger-than-expected 5.7% q/q jump in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 more than offset the setback in Q2, and took output 2.6% above its pre-pandemic level. While the recovery will slow from here, we now... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update COP26 a small step forward but much left to do COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The strong 1.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in October came as the unwinding of earlier hurricane-related disruption and a partial recovery in motor vehicle production boosted manufacturing... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 1.7% m/m rise in retail sales in October, driven by a similarly strong increase in underlying control group sales, suggests that real consumption will rebound to between 3% and 4% annualised in... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q3 2021) Israel’s economy slowed much more sharply than expected in Q3 as a shift in consumption habits away from goods and a fading of the re-opening boost to services caused a marked slowdown in consumption... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
