Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how strong is the fiscal picture? Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recoveries enter a more difficult phase Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s fragile external position poses risk to dinar Tunisia’s external position is in a dire state and policymakers have little ammunition available to defend the dinar. We think the currency will depreciate by more than 10% against the euro by the end... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21) Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters. 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may... 24th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops” The Turkish lira’s sharp fall yesterday looks similar to the experience of sudden stops elsewhere. In those instances, central banks usually responded with interest rate hikes of around 600bp as well... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Adv. Trade (Oct.), GDP (Q3 2nd Est.) The 0.5% fall in durable goods orders was not as bad as it looked, given that it was entirely due to a fall in volatile aircraft orders. But the bigger news this morning was the huge 10.7% m/m surge... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Export woes not just a Brexit story Brexit is undoubtedly a factor behind the slower post-pandemic recovery in UK exports relative to elsewhere. But doesn’t appear to be the sole reason. Instead, pandemic effects may explain at least... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Service sector recovery remains lacklustre Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2021) November’s flash PMI points to a rebound in industrial output amidst early signs that supply shortages are diminishing. But while the services sector is now on the mend, the recovery there is lacking... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Revised) Revised Q3 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy grew more strongly than first thought last quarter, and while containment measures mean the recovery is unlikely to have gained much momentum so far... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Shortages exert further upward pressure on prices The Flash PMIs for November showed that although there are tentative signs that supply shortages are easing slightly, labour and product shortages are still weighing on recoveries in advanced... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
