Global Economics Chart Pack Global recovery slowing down a gear There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while... 20th September 2021 · 12 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year. 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount The recent surge in European gas and coal prices adds to the price pressures facing the region and will push headline inflation rates further above central banks' targets in the coming months... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weak activity news likely to stave off rate hike On the back of the surge in inflation in August and the blistering increases in wholesale gas and electricity prices, investors and some economists have shifted their expectations of the first rate... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth to stay weak, inflation to keep rising Data published this week highlight the challenge to euro-zone consumers from subdued pay growth and rising inflation. We expect inflation to keep rising in the coming months, and probably further than... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices Given the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices to record highs, it looks likely that Ofgem will opt for another chunky hike to the price cap on households’ utility bills next April... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the... 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The fourth consecutive fall in retail sales in August isn’t as bad as it looks as some of it reflects households spending more on non-retail items as life returns closer to normal. But as non-retail... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read