UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The composite activity PMIs hardly changed in November as the economy held up fairly well despite continued supply disruptions and shortages. Meanwhile, signs that price pressures continued to grow... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant The Turkish lira has plunged this morning after President Erdogan signalled yesterday that policymakers have no appetite to respond to the currency’s recent falls by hiking interest rates. Further... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November suggests that the region’s recovery has not lost further momentum. But with supply shortages still acute, Covid restrictions being... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The latest data suggest that Poland’s economy started Q4 with solid momentum as industry and retail sales expanded strongly in October. We think that industry will continue to hold up well in the... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renewed COVID concerns The news that lockdowns are once again being imposed in parts of Europe puts COVID-19 and its impact on economic activity and financial markets back into back into focus. While predicting the course... 22nd November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on speed of rate hikes Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation... 22nd November 2021 · 12 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: More positive on near-term pricing CEE property values completed the final leg of their recovery in Q3, fully reversing the nearly 5.5% peak-to-trough drop in 2020. With rents barely moving on the quarter, falls in yields did all the... 22nd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Export orders dip, but shortages will persist Taiwan export orders dropped back in October, but the big picture is that they are down only slightly over the past few months and remain at an elevated level. Looking ahead, we expect demand to... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean external imbalances, Peronists humbled While much of the focus in Chile has centred on Sunday's general election, one story which may have flown under the radar is that external vulnerabilities are building. Data this week showed that the... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stimulus package large but smaller than reported The stimulus unveiled today by PM Kishida’s new cabinet was broadly in line with expectations despite inflated headline figures quoted in media reports which we think are padded with loans and... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Build Back Better to have limited near-term benefits The Build Back Better Act, which was passed by the House today, would provide only a small boost to economic growth next year. With the economy already running up against capacity constraints and any... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices surge, floods devastate BC The renewed surge in house prices could persuade the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than we forecast, although the hit to activity from the devasting floods in BC this week reduces the... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Momentum could be sapped by winter wave While the recent performance of sales and production has been encouraging, the possibility of another winter wave of coronavirus infections represents a significant downside risk to activity over the... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turmoil in Turkey, MNB delivers, COVID divergence It's been a turbulent week for Turkey, with the lira falling by around 11% against the dollar and we've looked extensively at the key implications for the economy and financial system. We'll be... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
