Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Election solidifies larger role for government The federal election confirms that the government will continue to play a larger role in the economy than before the pandemic, which is one reason to think that inflation will be higher in the coming... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling could still delay QE taper This week the focus was on the Fed, which appears intent on announcing a QE taper at the next FOMC meeting in early November. Next week the focus will shift to fiscal policy, with the Democrat’s plans... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Are we on the way to a bigger state? While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies. 24th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly States of emergency may end before LDP election Reports this week that PM Suga is keen to end emergency declarations before leaving office on Wednesday are good for our view that output will rebound strongly to above pre-virus levels in Q4... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments prepare to step in Evergrande creditors face a bumpy few weeks with a string of bond coupon payments due. Even if the company can scrape together the cash – not at all certain, given that it just missed one payment... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (September) The third successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in September provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing steam, as supply chain difficulties persist and the surge in gas... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Supply shortages to persist Taiwan export orders dipped back again in August, suggesting that demand for Asian electronics goods may have peaked. However, with demand still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Domestic needs limit prospects for vaccine exports India is planning to resume exporting COVID-19 vaccines from October, which should help to further boost the trade position. But with vaccination coverage still low, the domestic vaccine rollout will... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Sep. 2021) September’s flash PMIs suggest that while the services sector is bouncing back as the delta wave has ebbed, the manufacturing sector is suffering from weaker demand and mounting supply shortages. 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Qatar gas, Morocco FX purchases, Tunisian turmoil The continued rise in global gas prices will provide a substantial boost to Qatar's export revenues and provide scope for policymakers to loosen the purse strings to support the economic recovery... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The divergence between the FOMC and financial markets Judging by the reaction in bond markets to yesterday’s Fed announcement, investors are sceptical the central bank will have to hike rates by as much as it is signalling it will. But if, as we expect... 23rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show growth easing and inflation pressures rising The flash PMIs for September show that the pace of growth slowed across developed economies towards the end of Q3, suggesting that the boost to activity from reopening is fading. But inflationary... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales fell in July, but that was mainly because consumers switched back to spending on services as the coronavirus restrictions were eased. In any case, the preliminary estimate suggests that... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai World Expo: near-term boost, debt risks linger The long-awaited World Expo in Dubai will get underway next Friday and while there is likely to be some boost to the economy, this will be short lived. What’s more, as we have long warned, the Expo... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read