Europe Economics Weekly

Growth, inflation and fiscal policy

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of...

29th November 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Economy losing momentum, but public sector will help

The recent news on activity is probably overstating the weakness of the economy as it is not adequately capturing the increases in government spending and public investment. Even so, it does appear as...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.)

The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

India Rapid Response

India GDP (Q3 2024)

GDP figures show the economy slowed sharply last quarter, and we expect economic activity to struggle over the coming quarters. That bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany

It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (November 2024)

The EC survey was little changed in November and is still consistent with weak growth at best, while the price components suggest that inflationary pressures remain sticky.

28th November 2024 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: New model points to weaker growth in China

We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so...

27th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Oct. 2024)

The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the...

27th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024)

EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry

One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect...

27th November 2024 · 29 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q3 2nd Est), Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Oct)

October’s income and spending data, due at 10am ET today, could also affect our estimate but, for now, the big drop back in goods imports in October means that we have forth-quarter GDP growth...

27th November 2024 · 2 mins read