Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The November ISM manufacturing survey suggests that supply shortages are yet to ease significantly, but it does at least echo anecdotal reports that they are no longer getting worse. 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the recovery is still ongoing, although it appears that global supply shortages have remained a drag. And with vaccination coverage in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today slipped under 50 last month on the back of softer domestic demand. This contrasts with the official survey released yesterday. Taken together, the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the rebound in industry from the Delta wave in South East Asia continued last month, and we suspect it has further to run. Drop-In: India – How much scarring... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3 2021) With private consumption now rebounding strongly as lockdowns have ended, output in states not affected by lockdowns continuing to rise, and capital spending resilient, we expect GDP to surpass its... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose... 30th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Omicron, Powell and the US dollar With financial markets already firmly in risk-off mode following the emergence of the Omicron variant, Fed Chair Powell’s suggestion that the FOMC may still increase the pace of policy tightening has... 30th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA and the Omicron risks The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have... 30th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus outbreaks diverge, but Omicron a renewed risk COVID-19 outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe have diverged in the past month and that may continue in December, but the emergence of the potentially highly-transmissible Omicron variant could... 30th November 2021 · 16 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the stronger-than-expected pace of third-quarter GDP growth because it mainly reflects a downward revision to GDP in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the latest GDP... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
