Asset Allocation Update Infrastructure & reconciliation unlikely to mean Q1 rerun While the large fiscal stimulus passed in the US in the first quarter of this year appears to have been a key reason why equities there outperformed Treasuries at the time, we think that the... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to make of Sweden’s August GDP shocker? The eye-watering decline in Swedish GDP in August suggests that supply shortages and weakening global growth will continue to take the shine off the impressive rebound in the Swedish economy in late... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending on goods is flatlining. But overall consumption is still likely to have grown fairly strongly in Q3 as spending on services... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s recovery facing several headwinds Egypt’s economy has emerged from the COVID-19 crisis relatively well, but the country’s lagging vaccine rollout, a slow return of international tourists and tight fiscal policy mean that the recovery... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The vaccine tide is slowly turning A likely flood of exports from India and China, as well as a ramping up of donations from the US, should help to significantly boost vaccine supply for the many poor EMs in Africa and South and South... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five reasons why Mexico’s recovery will disappoint There are five key headwinds to Mexico’s economy, including high inflation and shortages in the auto sector, which suggest to us that the recovery will disappoint expectations from here. We now... 5th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response US International Trade (Aug.) We expect that the widening in the trade deficit to $73.3bn in August, from $70.3bn, will soon start to reverse, as exports catch up with imports. But there is a risk over the coming months that... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The large improvement in the trade surplus in August was much better than the consensus estimate of a small deterioration, but we are wary about suggesting that there are upside risks to our third... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger than expected 0.7% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August suggests that the sector probably knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth in Q3. Persistent shortages of component... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A property tax could make up for fewer land sales Local governments in China are far less reliant on land sales as a source of revenue than is often claimed. While slowing real estate development will create a funding gap, it could be more than... 5th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Is the worst over? With cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam falling sharply and the government easing restrictions, factories are starting to reopen, and the latest data suggest the worst is now over for the country’s... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon private sectors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar gathered pace as domestic activity strengthened on the back of easing virus... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery losing some momentum as GDP approaches its pre-pandemic size and as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing. The... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The buoyant readings in India’s PMI surveys for September add weight to our view that economic output rose back to pre-virus levels in Q3. But the recovery will probably lose momentum over the coming... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households’ excess savings continue to build Households continued to accumulate “excess” savings in Q2 this year, with those held as cash and bank deposits equivalent to about 4% of GDP. We do not expect all of this to be spent, but some of it... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s hard activity data for August showed that industry has continued to struggle while loose fiscal policy has supported consumer spending. We think that consumer demand should hold up well at... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read