Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Coronavirus fears have resurged, with some restrictions being reimposed in Europe. So far, the hit to activity seems fairly modest, but it will be enough to see economic recoveries in the euro-zone... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily New German government may affect BTPs more than Bunds We think the new German Government will not have a significant impact on the outlook for German Bunds. But at the margin, the uncertainty surrounding its stance in the upcoming negotiations on reforms... 8th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of recent developments in China We doubt that recent signs of policy easing in China are a precursor to a sharp rebound in either credit growth or the country’s economy. That in turn informs our forecast that government bond yields... 7th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct) The restart of motor vehicle production across the continent boosted Canada’s exports and imports sharply in October, although there are downside risks to trade in November due to the infrastructure... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1% point to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualised, and provides more evidence that... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf ends 2021 strongly but Omicron a key threat November’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that non-oil sectors in the Gulf continued their recent strong trend, but the emergence of the Omicron variant – and threat of tighter restrictions –... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s GDP contracted by 1.5% q/q in Q3 as violent unrest and a third virus wave hit the economy hard, and the more recent data suggest that activity remained depressed even before the latest... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Omicron may weaken activity but lift price pressures While the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the downside risks to our GDP forecasts, it has arguably increased the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts. The... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Oct. 2021) Wage growth stayed weak in October but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent vaccine-led reopening allows a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
