Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages to maintain upward pressure on inflation Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and... 14th December 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics December looking dismal, but lockdown the real risk Reports that the surge in Omicron COVID-19 cases is causing some people to stay away from work, schools, pubs and restaurants increases the downside risks to our December and January GDP forecasts... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: 2021 as good as it gets for returns The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks... 14th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in October means euro-zone industry started Q4 on a decent note. But supply-chain problems remain acute and, in any case, any improvement is likely to be... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Omicron lessons from South Africa South Africa’s experience with Omicron so far offers tentative hope to other economies since it hasn’t pushed up the incidence of very severe illness in the same way that the Delta wave did. The... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales data for October suggest that the economy made a strong start to Q4, but these predate the recent currency crisis and we think the economy is likely to... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4 2021) The Q4 Tankan survey showed that the services sector has started to narrow the gap relative to manufacturing and we think that process has further to run. 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging monetary policies may extend the USD rally Today’s US CPI data produced a relatively limited reaction in the US dollar, which is set to end the week a bit weaker against most major currencies. Attention now turns to the 17(!) central bank... 10th December 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s inflation expectations, commodity exports Brazil's central bank made it clear at its meeting this week that it will continue to hike rates aggressively until inflation expectations come down which, based on past form, will occur when actual... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Pivotal week coming up for the Fed Following Chair Jerome Powell’s markedly more hawkish tone at his recent congressional testimony, markets are braced for the Fed to pivot hard at next week’s FOMC meeting 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank growing more concerned about cost pressures The Bank of Canada’s increased concerns about wage and cost pressures suggest it will start to tighten policy in April, especially if the government loosens fiscal policy in next week’s fall fiscal... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron not yet swaying EM central banks The latest EM central bank meetings confirmed that policymakers in Emerging Europe and Latin America are still focused on high and rising inflation, rather than any downside risk to the economic... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Easing signalled for 2022 The past week, culminating in the conclusion today of the economic planning meeting for 2022, leaves little doubt that policy support is being stepped up. There’s even a chance, we think, of a policy... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly How to get a job at the SNB; declining mobility Our CE Mobility Trackers for Sweden and Norway paint a downbeat picture for the consumer sector and mirror the clear downward trend seen in the euro-zone over H2 2021. So while we still expect the... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
