UK Economics MPC begins lift-off but rates unlikely to soar The surprise hike in interest rates by the Bank of England today, from 0.10% to 0.25%, could just be a case of the Bank moving a bit quicker than expected, but the hawkish tone of the commentary... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics Saudi Arabia’s 2022 Budget revealed that the government plans to cut spending in order to run a budget surplus for the first time since 2013. But the true fiscal stance is being muddied by an... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises... 16th December 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The fall in the composite PMI in December doesn’t come as much of a surprise given the surge in cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. But it was much bigger than expected, and shows that caution... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in December suggests that growth slowed to a crawl as tighter restrictions and growing consumer caution are taking their toll on economic activity, with the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to stay ahead of the Fed as SNB holds pat While the Swiss National Bank maintained the status quo once again this morning (yawn), the Norges Bank continued its tightening cycle, as expected, and opened the door to another rate hike in March... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ongoing pandemic to slow migration’s return to normal The continued threat of new virus waves, and therefore fresh rounds of travel restrictions, suggests that global migration flows could remain subdued for a while yet. However, we continue to doubt... 16th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP to leave rates low to support recovery The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, and with inflation set to ease further over the coming months we think the central bank will keep monetary... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2021) The fall in New Zealand’s output in Q3 will have partially unwound in Q4 as lockdowns were gradually eased. And the fact the fall in GDP was much smaller than the RBNZ’s forecast supports our view... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think EM LC government bond yields will rise further We expect local-currency government bond yields in most emerging markets (EMs) to rise a bit in 2022, as EM central banks continue to tighten monetary policy and US Treasury yields increase. In China... 15th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf governments to keep fiscal policy tight Governments across the Gulf have begun to unveil their 2022 budgets and tight fiscal policy remains the order of the day. Saudi Arabia outlined a 6% cut in spending next year that is expected to push... 15th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) With prices rising sharply last month, the muted 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests that consumption was little changed in real terms. That won’t stop the Fed from accelerating the pace of... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors spooked by Omicron risks The discovery of the Omicron COVID-19 variant in late November rattled UK markets. Equities tumbled, sterling weakened and corporate credit spreads jumped. And, while the initial reaction was not... 15th December 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) Industry in China continued to rebound last month from disruptions caused by power shortages while the recovery in services activity was held back by renewed virus outbreaks. A new COVID outbreak in... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
