US Rapid Response

ISM Services Index (Nov. 2024)

The fall in the ISM services index to 52.1 in November is not too concerning, given it was driven partly by a slump in the supplier deliveries index, but it does lend some support to our view that GDP...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q3 2024)

GDP growth remained sluggish in the third quarter, adding to the case for the RBA to start easing policy before long.

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q3 2024)

The strong 0.9% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP in Q3 will add to the central bank’s concerns that the economy is running too hot. Alongside rising inflation and the sell-off in local financial markets...

3rd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Nov. 2024)

November’s batch of PMIs showed an increase all of the Gulf economies, although there remained some underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s PMI improved a touch as...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa GDP (Q3 2024)

South Africa’s economy recorded a surprise contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q3, but that was largely due to a steep decline in agricultural output. The rest of the economy held up much better and we expect...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026

We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations...

3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry

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What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?

Global Economics Update

Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost

The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A weak end to 2024 for EM manufacturing

The pick up in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in November was largely driven by China. Elsewhere, manufacturing activity looks as though it will remain relatively soft into next year. The surveys...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2024)

The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November was as expected following recent hurricanes and the end of the Boeing strike, however the breakdown showed the sector is still stuck in a rut...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November)

The November PMIs for Asia remained weak and are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing activity in the region to remain subdued in the near term. The data also showed a modest pick-up in...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Nov. 2024)

While the Caixin services PMI fell a touch, the composite PMI rose which is consistent with our expectation for an acceleration in q/q GDP growth this quarter. Increased fiscal spending and the front...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24)

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read