China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is not pleased The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest... 22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q3 2nd Estimate) Today’s release indicates the economy had a bit less momentum in Q3 than we had previously thought. And, with early signs the Omicron variant has hit activity, growth is sure to have slowed further in... 22nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Dec.) December’s decline in consumer confidence adds to the list of deteriorating consumer indicators. We expect household spending to contribute to a marked slowdown in GDP growth in Q4 to just 0.2% q/q. 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales rose strongly in October and the preliminary estimate points to another solid gain in November. That is likely to mark the peak for the next few months, however, as the rapidly... 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden ETI (Dec.) The resilience of the ETI in December underlines that the Swedish economy is comparatively well-placed going into 2022. All told, the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its so-far dovish stance is... 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
China Activity Monitor Virus disruption compounding property strains China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign investors have been net sellers of EM assets for much of this year and tighter monetary policy in the US and a stronger dollar suggest that the environment for EMs next year will remain... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s crisis in four charts Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think BoE hikes will push up Gilt yields eventually While the yields of both short- and long dated Gilts have moved little following yesterday’s surprise rate hike by the Bank of England we still expect them to rise as monetary policy is tightened... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong Q4 but growing downside risks to Q1 The activity data released this week suggest that the economy was in a strong position in the fourth quarter and the price data imply that inflationary pressures are broadening. The surge in... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
