China Economics Weekly Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms China is recording the highest number of new COVID infections since the initial lockdown in Q1 2020. But the current outbreak has not spread as widely across the country as the Delta wave last summer... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery in industrial activity will run out of steam Japan’s car industry has rebounded quickly from the disruptions caused by Delta waves across South-East Asia a few months ago. But amidst persistent supply shortages, output hasn’t quite returned to... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Nov. 2021) Wage growth fell to zero in November due a slump in bonus payments, but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent reopening feeds into a renewed recovery in overtime and bonus... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Five key calls and five unknowns for Canada in 2022 We expect GDP to grow strongly once the current restrictions are eased, but we are sceptical that either GDP growth or inflation will be as high this year as widely anticipated. This leads us to think... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron won’t cause euro-zone to contract in Q1 Omicron will reduce economic activity in the coming weeks due to tighter restrictions, consumer caution and absenteeism. Our best guess is that economic activity in the euro-zone will decline in... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Global coronavirus cases have surged, and pressure is mounting on health systems as hospitalisations rise. Given that Omicron is milder than past variants, governments are typically leaning on booster... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Key calls for Switzerland and the Nordics in 2022 We think that GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordics will be slower than most anticipate this year, and the boosts to inflation from energy prices will subside over the year. But while the SNB will... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rising yields and high valuations may limit gains in US stocks Although we do not think that US equities will continue to fall sharply, we nonetheless forecast that their gains over the next couple of years will fall well short of those in 2021. 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov) The jump in the goods trade surplus to a 13-year high in November is another sign that the flooding in British Columbia had only a small impact on overall economic activity. It confirms that the... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rebound in the trade deficit in November means that net trade is now on track to be a small drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter, rather than a small boost as we had previously... 6th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Six key calls and three risks for the UK in 2022 Our new forecasts for 2022 envisage CPI inflation rising further than most expect to a peak of 7% and the Bank of England raising interest rates quicker, from 0.25% now to 1.25% by the end of the year... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in November, taken together with the weak surveys for December, suggests that the sector probably knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth in Q4... 6th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Omicron will add to upward pressure on inflation The Omicron variant will probably result in a stagnation in consumption this quarter. However, by worsening supply shortages it will only add to the upward pressure on inflation. The upshot is that it... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
