Europe Data Response German GDP (2021) Provisional data showing that Germany’s GDP increased by 2.7% last year and news that it shrank in Q4 underlines that its recovery has lagged many of its peers, including the US, France and the UK. We... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Omicron surging, asset sales progressing COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Nov.) Although the effects of the Omicron COVID-19 wave will probably mean that the economy falls back below its pre-pandemic peak by January after having surpassed it for the first time in November, that... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Our climate change assumptions Ahead of publishing our latest Long-Term Outlook next month, this Update sets out the assumptions we have made in our long term forecasts about both climate change and the efforts to prevent it. 13th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia We think that the recent rally in oil prices is likely to be short lived and, as prices fall back, the window for governments in the Gulf to loosen fiscal policy will shut. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Peak homebuilding The amount of residential floor space being built in China hit a record last year. With new project starts dropping sharply recently, the government has now unveiled plans to ramp up construction of... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022 In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November suggest that the economy held up relatively well in the middle of Q4. But the effects of the recent currency crisis are likely to... 13th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on Omicron’s economic effects While it is very uncertain, we estimate that disruption due to Omicron could knock around 1% off GDP in advanced economies while the outbreak is at its height, mainly due to staff absences. This would... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The disappointing 0.1% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in November raises the chances that the economy slipped into a recession last quarter. And while auto production looks to have... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
