UK Economics Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in retail sales volumes in December was bigger than expected and supports our view that the Omicron outbreak in the run-up to Christmas may have dragged down GDP by 0.5% m/m, if not more. 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving... 20th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the cusp of policy tightening India’s Omicron wave should only be a temporary setback to the economic recovery. As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that economic growth will be faster this year than... 19th January 2022 · 18 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy performed strongly in the middle of Q4 and the early evidence is that the latest Omicron-driven virus wave inflicted only minimal... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s “new economic model” to amplify old problems The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher... 18th January 2022 · 16 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q4) The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys suggest the upside risks to inflation over the next couple of years have increased, and raise the chance that the Bank will hike as soon as... 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank to have to change tack The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in... 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) Manufacturing sales rose strongly for the second month running in November, but the disruption to labour supply from the Omicron wave presents a clear downside risk to output in December and January. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter and in q/q terms was the strongest since late 2020. But we are sceptical that this reflects the reality on the ground – our China Activity Proxy... 17th January 2022 · 3 mins read
