Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth could prompt faster policy tightening The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed firms’ wage expectations at a record high, which suggests that wage growth could accelerate to far above the pre-pandemic norm this... 25th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think the fundamental backdrop for gold remains negative Despite its surprising resilience over the past few weeks, we still think the price of gold will fall to $1,600/oz. by the end of 2022. 25th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent... 25th January 2022 · 49 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (January) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) While Omicron means that the strong GDP growth recorded in Q4 2021 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, the recovery should be back on track before long. With the economic outlook still upbeat... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Omicron hit worse in the US than other DMs The Flash PMIs for January suggest that Omicron has dealt a big blow to both industry and services sectors in the US in recent weeks, while other DMs have got off more lightly. But with new cases... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Hit to output from staff absences could be hard Skyrocketing infections and a 10-day isolation requirement for close contacts of positive cases have resulted in a wave of staff absences in Japan. Domestic carmakers already struggling with chip... 24th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
US Chart Pack Omicron impact short-lived The surge in Omicron infections means more people were self-isolating in early-January than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, although the impact that will have on employment and output... 24th January 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The third consecutive decline in the composite PMI indicates that the Omicron variant weighed further on activity in January. But the recent fall in COVID-19 cases, relaxation of restrictions and... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The small decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that Omicron has taken a toll on the services sector, though Germany performed surprisingly well. We think governments will ease restrictions... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The latest activity data in Poland show that industry expanded strongly in Q4 but that the shine came off the retail sector amid falling consumer sentiment and surging inflation. We think that GDP... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
