Chile Economy Contracts for First Time in a Year as Recovery Stalls “The 0.6% q/q fall in Chilean GDP in Q2 is mainly payback for a strong Q1, and we expect a return to positive growth in Q3,” Kimberley Sperrfechter, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics... 19th August 2024 · Bloomberg
Emerging Europe Economics Update War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the... 19th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2024) The 0.6% q/q fall in Chilean GDP in Q2 is mainly payback for a strong Q1, and we expect a return to positive growth in Q3. Still, the Q2 figures should the central bank confidence to deliver a couple... 19th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ would only cut rates if economy tanks While we expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% next year, the Bank’s still very accommodative stance means that this alone won’t trigger interest rate cuts. We think it would require a... 19th August 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly More good data all around The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing: Price pressures remained muted last month, while the strength of retail sales and the drop back in initial jobless claims suggested... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish outperformance The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible... 16th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2024) It was an extremely poor month for the manufacturing sector in June, with sales falling to a two-and-a-half-year low. As new orders slumped, inventories are elevated and the S&P Global manufacturing... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mpox, SA’s geopolitical pivot This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption to economic activity in the region, with... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
