Canada Economics Weekly Bank signals eagerness to begin QT Although the Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged this week, its signal that it intends to start quantitative tightening soon was more hawkish than most were expecting. 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly More space to scrap NIC hike than most think With the beleaguered Prime Minister looking to win back support from his Tory MPs, one option reportedly being considered is postponing or scrapping the planned national insurance tax hike. On our... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina agrees to new IMF deal The announcement by Argentine President Fernández that the government has reached a new agreement with the IMF, the 22nd in their history, will give some relief to international bondholders in the... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ageing a bigger threat than pandemic to public debt We expect governments in advanced economies to take action to prevent public sector debt ratios from spiralling out of control as their populations age. However, this is uncertain, and the risk is... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for rate hikes in Sweden continues to build With the Swedish economy flying, core inflation picking up, and inflation expectations back above target, the stage is surely set for a hawkish mea culpa at the Riksbank’s next policy announcement, on... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator weakened in January as the Omicron wave took a toll on economic activity, particularly in the services sector. The survey also showed that supply shortages remained... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for January generally showed sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe holding up across all sectors of the economy. With Omicron waves likely to peak in the... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s COVID shift, Q1 Outlooks A successful vaccination campaign means that, despite a surge in COVID cases, Korea is sticking with its plans to reopen the economy. This supports our view that Omicron will have only a small impact... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region to lag behind as debt risks mount Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest... 28th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2021) The decline in economic activity at the end of last year left GDP well below its pre-pandemic level and much weaker than in other major advanced economies. Activity seems to have stabilised in January... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy barely grew in Q4 despite a rebound in goods exports. And with stricter containment measures imposed this month to contain the latest outbreak, we expect an outright contraction... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French & Spanish GDP (Q4 2021) Both the French and Spanish economies ended 2021 on a strong note, but for different reasons. In France, domestic demand pushed output above its pre-virus level, a boon for President Macron ahead of... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stricter listing rules to lift profitability further Profit margins of listed Japanese firms hit a record high at the end of last year despite the headwinds from goods shortages and soaring input costs. That rise has a large structural component... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
