Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The stronger-than-expected rise in November means that GDP climbed back above its pre-pandemic level, but activity appears to have stagnated in December and November’s gain was likely reversed in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month from the slump in activity on the back of the Omicron wave, but headwinds facing the sector and the wider economy will keep the recovery subdued. 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The continued resilience of the manufacturing PMIs in Switzerland and Sweden in January indicates that industry will have supported activity through a restrictions-driven soft patch for services in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The 0.1% q/q fall in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy slipped into a recession over the second half of 2021, and we think growth this year will be weaker than most expect. Despite the... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities adjusting to the end of ultra-low real yields It is possible that equity prices will continue to struggle in the near term if central banks send more signals that they are willing to raise interest rates further in order to control inflation. But... 31st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2021) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 came as no surprise given the country-level data published last week and shows that the euro-zone economy was struggling at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update Weaker China sets stage for fall in commodity prices The latest PMI data out of China suggest that demand for commodities softened again in January. And with Chinese demand unlikely to bounce back meaningfully this year, we continue to expect sharp... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2021) The larger-than-expected 5.7% increase in Polish GDP over 2021 as a whole is consistent with another large expansion in Q4 and meant that the economy recovered faster than most other European... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth slowed in January due to a combination of weaker foreign demand, cooling property activity and efforts to contain recent outbreaks. We think... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec. 2021) The small fall in both retail sales and industrial production in December suggests that the post-Delta rebound was losing steam before local Omicron cases started to surge. And while output is still... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Unpacking Argentina’s IMF agreement The Argentine government’s agreement with the IMF for a new $44.5bn deal is a positive step to improve macroeconomic stability. But, at first glance, the deal seems to be based on rosy economic... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
