Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Dec. 2021) Wage growth turned negative in December due to another fall in end-of-year bonus payments, but it should soon bounce back above 1% y/y this year as the labour market tightens and strong corporate... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (December) The small decline in production in December was not quite as bad as it looks because it was largely due to a fall in construction activity, but 2021 was still a terrible year for German manufacturers... 7th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia’s economy rebounded strongly in the final quarter of last year, but the recovery is now entering a more difficult phase. Omicron will act as a small obstacle in the first quarter. But a... 7th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Manufacturing profit margins set to reach record-high Soaring input prices have kept profit margins of manufacturers below their pre-virus peak even as those of services firms have hit record highs. However, manufacturers will catch up before long. 6th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Major economies floundering, Brazil’s primary surplus While there were some positive signs from the latest activity data for Brazil and Mexico, both economies seem to have started 2022 on the backfoot. Otherwise, fiscal figures show that Brazil's... 4th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Better news for the US economy than the US stock market Today’s stronger-than-expected US Employment Report (see the US section below) serves as a reminder that good news on the economy isn’t necessarily good news for the stock market. 4th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shortages appear to be stabilising As it turns out, employment gains were much stronger than previously thought over the final few months of last year and the Omicron wave did little to slow the pace of growth in January. With the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron disruption already in the rear-view mirror The data releases this week suggest that the Omicron wave was more disruptive than we anticipated, but there are already positive signs that the economy will strongly rebound this month. 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: ‘BIG’ expectations for SONA speech South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 467,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January is even stronger than it looks, as it came despite the spike in absenteeism driven by the Omicron virus wave and was accompanied by significant upward... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK virus woes, holiday travel, fiscal support Hong Kong will be an exception to the global pattern that Omicron inflicts less economic damage than earlier virus variants. The city’s zero-COVID policies are proving far less effective than the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes in December means that sales growth slowed significantly in Q4 as a whole. While we expect consumer spending to recover over the coming months when... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
