UK Economics GDP (Dec. & Q4) When combined with the CPI inflation rate of 5.4%, the 0.2% m/m fall in GDP in December meant that the economy experienced a taste of stagflation at the end of last year. As it was driven by the... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures suggest that easing supply constraints and the boost to competitiveness from a weak lira supported industry in December, but household spending suffered as the... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter and, despite headwinds from Omicron, should continue to recover throughout 2022. 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Less to Brazil’s investment boom than meets the eye Fixed investment in Brazil rose at one of its fastest rates in the last 50 years in 2021 which, while a positive development, was driven by factors that are unlikely to be sustained. Fixed investment... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US-China trade deal stalemate will drag on China made none of the additional purchases it committed to under the Phase One trade deal. The Biden administration isn’t pleased but doesn’t have good options to force China to do more. And China... 10th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Aramco share sale, Tunisian politics Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that the Kingdom’s medium-term oil policy will include raising output to capture market share and not leave large... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Household incomes taking a big hit We estimate that the leap in utility prices and hike in taxes on 1 st April will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next two years by a cumulative £80bn. The resulting 2.0% decline in... 10th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4, Flash) & Egypt Inflation (Jan.) Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.6% q/q in the final quarter of 2021 and we think rising oil production will drive above-consensus growth this year. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What if oil prices remain higher than we expect? Higher oil prices would not provide as large a boost to the Canadian economy as in the past but, at a time when GDP is already set to rise above potential and inflation is well above target, they... 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery switching to an even slower lane Timely activity data suggest that, over Q4 as a whole, Nigeria’s economy came close to a standstill. The weak economic backdrop is likely to prevent the CBN from raising interest rates in the coming... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Prolonged border closure could lift labour costs With economic activity still depressed by recurrent virus waves, the sharp slowdown in immigration to Japan has yet to put much upwards pressure on wages. However, looking ahead we think some sectors... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Shift in ECB stance poses risks to the bond market Both we and the market are now discounting 100bp of ECB rate hikes by the end of 2023. And given the sequencing set out by Christine Lagarde, it seems likely that net asset purchases will end in Q3... 8th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec) Goods trade moved into a modest deficit in December but, with oil prices rising sharply since then, it should return to surplus in January. 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The solid gains in both exports and imports in December are a signal that global supply chain problems are easing, although the further widening in the trade deficit suggests that net trade will be a... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
