Capital Daily What to make of recent developments in China We doubt that recent signs of policy easing in China are a precursor to a sharp rebound in either credit growth or the country’s economy. That in turn informs our forecast that government bond yields... 7th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct) The restart of motor vehicle production across the continent boosted Canada’s exports and imports sharply in October, although there are downside risks to trade in November due to the infrastructure... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1% point to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualised, and provides more evidence that... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf ends 2021 strongly but Omicron a key threat November’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that non-oil sectors in the Gulf continued their recent strong trend, but the emergence of the Omicron variant – and threat of tighter restrictions –... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s GDP contracted by 1.5% q/q in Q3 as violent unrest and a third virus wave hit the economy hard, and the more recent data suggest that activity remained depressed even before the latest... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Omicron may weaken activity but lift price pressures While the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the downside risks to our GDP forecasts, it has arguably increased the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts. The... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Oct. 2021) Wage growth stayed weak in October but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent vaccine-led reopening allows a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash? South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In... 3rd December 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to hike sooner as labour market nears full health As the labour market is nearing a full recovery and wages are rising strongly, we now expect the Bank to hike interest rates in April, rather than waiting until July, as we previously expected. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell signals turning point in policy Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week was markedly more hawkish. We wouldn’t characterise it as a full-blown Volcker moment. But there could be parallels with former Chair Alan... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Omicron & tightening cycles, Turkey into the unknown While a lot is still unknown about the Omicron variant, we don’t think it will prevent central banks from delivering further large interest rate hikes - Poland will be a case in point next week, where... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read