Global Economics Update PMIs show activity rebounding from Omicron hit February’s Flash PMIs support our earlier assertion that activity in developed economies would recover quickly from disruption related to Omicron. There is also tentative evidence that supply... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the possible impact of sanctions Russia’s decision to send troops to eastern Ukraine has prompted US sanctions on the two breakaway Ukrainian regions, and Western governments are lining up further measures that would hit Russia... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (February) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in February strengthens our view that conditions in the German economy continued to improve during Q1. While the latest escalation of Russia-Ukraine... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Omicron risks fading, but headwinds remain Large Omicron waves have caused activity to weaken in many EMs in Q1, but the good news is that mobility appears to bounce back quickly once outbreaks subside. As a result, the economic hit is likely... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in gold may reverse We doubt that the rise in the price of gold in 2022 so far will be sustained. While a lot hinges on how geopolitical tensions play out, our forecast is that it will drop back to $1,600 per ounce by... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s punchy flash PMIs provide even more evidence that the economy has rebounded swiftly after the hit from Omicron. And beneath the headline numbers, there are tentative but encouraging signs... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The surge in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI in February suggests that activity is recovering well and supports our view that GDP will rise by around 0.5% q/q in Q1. There are tentative signs that... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan export orders unlikely to keep rising rapidly Taiwan new export orders picked up for a third straight month in January. While we expect this trend to go into reverse soon, a large backlog of unmet orders will keep the region’s exporters busy... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) After a strong rebound in Q4, the pace of Thailand’s economic recovery over the coming year will largely depend on how quickly tourists return. While we expect a sustained recovery in the tourism... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2022) The February flash PMIs suggest that the Omicron wave has dealt a significant blow to economic activity. But with that wave now having broken, we think Japan’s economy is set for a rebound stronger... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2021) The 4.7% expansion in Russian GDP in 2021 is consistent with a marked acceleration in growth in Q4. We expect the recovery to slow this year but the backdrop of a large and positive output gap will... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s growth spurt, Brazil’s rally Q4 GDP figures out this week showed that Colombia’s surprisingly strong recovery has been fuelled by rapid consumer spending growth, but this is unlikely to last as the boost from the re-opening fades... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
