China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Six questions on Ukraine and the euro-zone The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook for the euro-zone. While things are changing rapidly, at this stage we think the main effects will be... 24th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Emerging Europe: All-property values jump in Q4 Sharp falls in property yields and an improvement in rental growth pushed CEE all-property values in Q4 up almost 5% q/q, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2007. This was largely driven by the... 24th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2021) We estimate that private investment rose by a modest 0.7% q/q in Q4, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis could add 1.5% to EZ inflation this year In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Homeowners to keep on moving in 2022 Homeowners appear to be pressing ahead with plans to move house even though stamp duty is now fully reinstated. Transactions inevitably dipped last October as sales were rushed through in September to... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update State & local spending won’t replace federal stimulus The strong finances of state & local governments suggest that they will continue to increase spending at a rapid pace this year. But that won’t come close to matching the huge economic boost from the... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Lockdown to tip Hong Kong into a deep recession The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide some support to Hong Kong’s economy this year. But this is unlikely to fully offset the drag from Fed rate hikes, let alone the massive hit to... 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus How does South Africa deal with its debt problem? This week’s Budget in South Africa will probably see the government reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. But we think that officials will struggle to stay on this path in the next couple... 22nd February 2022 · 18 mins read
