Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small 0.6% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October was helped by a rebound in auto production, suggesting the sector may be starting to turn a corner. However, the risk of further... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation risks growing, vaccine production cuts The RBI delivered no surprises this week. If a hike does materialise in the next few months, a shock from food prices would be the most likely trigger. Meanwhile, although the Serum Institute is... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan in no rush to raise interest rates The central bank of Taiwan is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Thursday (both the consensus and ourselves expect no change). Despite the economy operating well-above its... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage-boosting tax breaks, Toyota setback The government’s new plan to offer firms more generous tax deductions for raising wages is unlikely to lift wage growth to 3% as targeted by PM Kishida. But with smaller firms being offered corporate... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all before Omicron means it is touch-and-go whether it will grow a bit in December or shrink a bit. Against that background, we doubt the Bank of... 10th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to extend Covid aid, won’t lose control of yields While renewed virus restrictions are unlikely to be deflationary, we think Omicron fears will prompt the Bank of Japan to err on the side of caution and extend its emergency corporate funding measures... 9th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the rebound in the Brazilian real to be short-lived While the real has strengthened against the US dollar following a further 150bp hike from Brazil’s central bank yesterday, we doubt that there will be a sustained rebound. 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery losing some steam Timely activity figures suggest that Nigeria’s economy lost momentum in early Q4 as oil sector woes continued and the non-oil economy’s recovery slowed. Headwinds have only built since. 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-JCPOA, Qatar’s budget, UAE working week shift The seventh round of talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal resumed today, having halted last week, and it appears as though reaching an agreement is some way off. This could put upwards pressure on... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) South Africa’s hard activity data for October confirm that the economy was struggling even before the emergence of a fourth virus wave, which will probably dampen activity further. In light of this... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update There’s room for more fiscal support if needed Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has been so far in the pandemic. Significant... 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Coronavirus fears have resurged, with some restrictions being reimposed in Europe. So far, the hit to activity seems fairly modest, but it will be enough to see economic recoveries in the euro-zone... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily New German government may affect BTPs more than Bunds We think the new German Government will not have a significant impact on the outlook for German Bunds. But at the margin, the uncertainty surrounding its stance in the upcoming negotiations on reforms... 8th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read