Capital Daily Russia-Ukraine and the market fallout: the story so far After a volatile 48 hours in financial markets, this Capital Daily highlights the key lessons from the market fallout since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A few points are worth stressing, in... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis raises inflation and debt risks The Russia-Ukraine crisis will improve the terms of trade of some African oil producers like Angola and Nigeria. But it will add to inflation pressures across the region. And in the meantime, investor... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Reflecting on the week that war began Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week will have significant and far-reaching implications and while reports of talks raise hopes, a halt to fighting does not look imminent. Russia's economy is likely... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis & Latin America The main economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on Latin America will come via higher commodity prices, with oil and grains producers set to benefit. But it will also cause inflation to trend... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Waller ramps up the hawkishness In his speech late last night, Christopher Waller became the first Fed Governor to throw his weight behind St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s call for 100bp of rate hikes by the middle of the year... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Terms of trade most favourable on record For Canada, the main impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis so far has been to push up the terms of trade to the most favourable on record. That could lead to the Bank of Canada becoming more hawkish... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey suggests that commercial property will have a better year than initially thought. Our total returns forecast for 2022 is in line with that of consensus, but beyond this... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Jan.) The real economy appears to be in good health, suggesting that the Fed will push on with planned rate hikes starting in March, although the Ukraine conflict makes a 50bp hike less likely. 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts The main channel through which Asia will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine is higher oil prices. We are sticking with our non-consensus view that most countries in Asia will leave interest rates on... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) February’s increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator showed that confidence was high before the recent news about the conflict in Ukraine. It also showed that supply shortages remained severe... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect from the NPC Some tips for interpreting the economic plans that will be revealed at the National People’s Congress next Saturday: If you want to know what officials think about the outlook, focus less on the real... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets in the fog of war Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent global financial markets into a tailspin. While the war is still in its early stages, there are a few observations worth making on the impact on financial markets... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
