Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Manufacturing PMIs in February generally pointed to strong manufacturing conditions in the region, but the escalation of conflict in Ukraine adds to the clear downside risks to industry over the... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Feb.) The surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth edged up slightly in February. But it remains weak amid continued supply shortages, higher imported inflation, and persistent disruption to... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Feb.) February Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data show that regional industry had another strong month. This should offset some of the Omicron-related weakness in service sectors this quarter. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and SWIFT: key questions answered In this Update, we answer the key questions about what the exclusion of Russian banks for SWIFT means for Russia and the rest of the world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this... 28th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Mixed market reaction in Africa to Russia-Ukraine war Elevated commodity prices on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis will almost certainly add to inflationary pressures across Sub-Saharan Africa. High prices for energy, metals and agricultural... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis won’t cause euro-zone recession The Ukraine crisis will be a drag on the euro-zone economy due to its effect on trade with Russia and the impact of higher energy prices on household consumption. However, this will be cushioned by... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economy to weather conflict, but risks around supply The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has increased the risks posed to the global economy, but we still expect the broader effects to be relatively contained given limited trade and financial... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: Some scenarios for the UK economy As it stands at the moment, we still think that the Russian/Ukraine conflict is more likely to boost inflation in the UK by more than it reduces GDP growth and that the Bank of England will continue... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Indian GDP data for Q4 (Q3 of FY21/22) show that economic growth was slowing before the Omicron wave hit. That outbreak will have caused activity to weaken further in the early stages of Q1. But with... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2021) Turkey’s economy weathered the initial fallout from the currency crisis well, with GDP rising by 1.5% q/q in Q4 of last year, but a downturn is likely at the start of this year. The Russia-Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2022) The rebound in retail sales in January suggests that the Omicron wave had a much smaller impact than many had feared and consumption will probably keep rising this quarter. 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 2022) The falls in both retail sales and industrial production in January confirm that the Omicron surge has knocked back the recovery. We think consumer spending will fall across this quarter, but it... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
